Tuesday, October 7, 2008

The Polls on the Second Presidential Debate

Now, let me say that as someone who has studied political science and is interested in the methodologies of the field, I've always been quite wary, if not averse , to a focus on quantitative research. When it comes down to it, social sciences are about human behaviour, and that is not something I believe you can easily translate into numbers. But the Americans have got me hooked on this stuff! Seriously, polls here, polls there, polls polls everywhere! There's no escaping them, and I must admit that they make more sense when studying a more or less proper election, then when studying various issues in my part of the world. Now, like all other statistic whores, I await the polls with bated breath. So having said that, these are CNN's initial poll numbers less than half an hour after the end of the debate:

When asked who won the debate 54% of Americans who watched the debate thought Obama did while only 30% of the same segment opted for McCaine. Obama's favourable/unfavourable ratings before the debate among those who watched were 60% favourable and 38 % unfavourable respectively. Post debate, these numbers changed in Obama's favour to 64% favourable and 34% unfavourable. McCaine's favourable/unfavourable numbers however did not change, remaining at 51% favourable and 46% unfavourable.

On the issues, here are the numbers: On Iraq, Obama wins 51% to 47%; on terrorism, McCaine wins 51% to 46%, but -wait for it- on the economy, Obama wins 59% to 37% and on the financial crisis Obama also wins 57% to 36 %-yep, double digits on the economy, is it time to say bye bye McCaine?

Some more interesting numbers :Who was expressing their points more clearly? 60% for Obama to 30% forMcCaine(dude's old, y'know?). Who spent more time attacking the opponent? 63% McCaine to 17% Obama( Dow Jones Industrial average went down 500 points today, the Republicans are like a dying wild animal thrashing out in all directions)Who seems like a stronger leader? 54% for Obama to 43% for McCaine (exactly what the Republicans don't want to hear as they try to paint Obama as the risky inexperienced candidate) and,one of my favourite questions, who is more likeable? 65% for Obama and 28% for McCaine(Who could resist that Obama Smile?).


E.K said...

Despite CNN polls I still don’t believe that Obama can win the election (I don’t care about wining debates; Bush didn’t win any debates in his campaign). What I see and hear here in FL shows something else. Overall poll shows 48% Obama, 44% McCain and 8% unsure – with +.-3% margin-. And 25 days to go the election race is far to be over.

zeinab said...

fair enough:)